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Post by Deleted on Mar 7, 2022 18:02:39 GMT
Honestly, what are they going to do, they won't be allowed talk to each other! Feel sorry for the people of Russia that are either completely unaware that they live in an alternate reality, or those that want to fight the regime but can't. Unfortunately, it's the only way to go. Strangle Russia until we hear the snap.
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Post by MattyJam on Mar 8, 2022 7:33:01 GMT
Unfortunately, it's the only way to go. Strangle Russia until we hear the snap. I just hope it's enough, but a lot of commentators who are far more knowledgeable about this stuff than me, don't seem to think sanctions are going to be enough to stop Putin. There's an increasing rhetoric that NATO getting involved is an inevitability and the West are just biding their time. And then Christ knows what the fallout from that will look like.
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Post by respect77 on Mar 8, 2022 9:28:39 GMT
I think Russia dug itself in a hole that will be hard to get out of. The sanctions will set Russian economy back 50 years. An already struggling economy. It may not make Putin change his mind (he's a crazy dictator on a mission), but on the long term, when Russians wake up from their delusional nationalistic, imperialistic dreams to the reality of having to eat, live, make ends meet, it won't make him popular. And not just among common people in Russia, but also the oligarchs who are losing a lot with these sanctions.
Also, I think this whole Ukraine endeavor is a huge miscalculation on Russia's part that's going to be their Vietnam, Afghanistan - only on a lot worse level. Even if they "win" on paper, ie. achieve the goal of toppling Zelensky and put their puppet government in his place, this government will rule over a massively hostile 40 million population. That government can only be kept up with massive Russian military presence which costs a lot of money. It's a huge country with a huge population. So Russia will have to spend a lot of money on this "peacekeeping" with an economy that's already in shambles and with people at home being poor. I can't help but thinking this can't end well for Russia even if they achieve a short term "win" by occupying Ukraine.
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Post by respect77 on Mar 8, 2022 12:36:57 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2022 18:02:38 GMT
I saw a Channel 4 reporter absolutely allow Lavrov to make bits of himself and completely discredit himself in any universe the other day. If he said the sky was blue, he's still lying.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2022 18:20:54 GMT
McDonalds, Pizza Hut and KFC all closing in Russia.
Come on Coca-Cola, Pepsi-co and Starbucks!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2022 19:25:36 GMT
Зачем приехал к нам ты, враг, от запада? Признайся. Приехал чтобы украсть от нас великие достижения народа? Великие труды рабочих? Признайся. Подкупить народ богатством Запада старался?"
"Why have you come, the enemy, from the West? Confess! To steal the great achievements of the people? The great accomplishments of the workers? Confess. Have you tried hard to bribe the people with the riches of the West?"
Those last spoken lines of Stranger in Moscow. Oof. They hit proper hard now.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2022 21:19:18 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 8, 2022 21:20:03 GMT
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Post by respect77 on Mar 9, 2022 3:11:07 GMT
Thread
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Post by pg13 on Mar 9, 2022 11:34:09 GMT
IMO, the end of this war will result in some kind of partition of Ukraine. "The response that we are getting from the NATO countries is that they are not ready to even discuss having us in NATO, not for the next period of five or 10 years. We are ready to discuss some non-NATO models. For example, there could be direct guarantees by different countries like the U.S., China, UK, maybe Germany and France. We are open to discussing such things in a broader circle, not only in bilateral discussions with Russia but also with other partners." Source: Ukrainian negotiator David Arakhamia www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-open-discussing-non-nato-models-negotiator-tells-fox-news-2022-03-06/And: "I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago after we understood that ... NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine. The alliance is afraid of controversial things, and confrontation with Russia. I'm talking about security guarantees. [Donbas and Luhansk] have not been recognized by anyone but Russia, these pseudo republics. But we can discuss and find the compromise on how these territories will live on." "What is important to me is how the people in those territories are going to live who want to be part of Ukraine, who in Ukraine will say that they want to have them in. So the question is more difficult than simply acknowledging them. "This is another ultimatum and we are not prepared for ultimatums. What needs to be done is for President Putin to start talking, start the dialogue instead of living in the informational bubble without oxygen." Source: Ukrainian President Zelensky www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220308-in-nod-to-russia-ukraine-says-no-longer-insisting-on-nato-membershipIn other words, Ukraine wants a security guarantee agreement from the United States, United Kingdom, France and so on on a personal State to State level. With zero involvement from NATO. Zelensky also seems to be open to discussing the possibility of Ukrainian partition which is something I discussed on the previous page or two as the most likely outcome. But partition is not easy or simple to do given both Russia and Ukraine will have a significant minority in either state who don't want to be part of one or the other. So, it looks to me that Ukraine is talking about: 1) Security guarantee for Ukrainian Security as a state similar to the Budapest Memorandum. But much more robust and binding on the West. 2) Security guarantees for any Ukrainian minority who might yet find themselves living on the Russian side of the border in the east. As I said, I see this ending in partition with a smaller Ukraine and slightly bigger Russia.
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Post by pg13 on Mar 9, 2022 11:35:22 GMT
In my view, it's definitely far, far too early to feel even slightly hopeful. Any negotiations between Ukraine and Russia has a very long way to go.
The longer Ukrainian resistance continues, the more they strengthen their hand at the negotiation table. Yet Ukraine still lacks the military capability to push Russia out of Ukraine completely.
That gives Russia a certain degree of bargaining power.
The idea of non-NATO security guaranteed arrangements for Ukraine is not new and has been done before - the Budapest Memorandum.
Russia repeatedly broke that agreement whereas the United States, United Kingdom and, to a lesser degree, France have not kept their side of the Security defence.
Neither has China who, along with France, didn't agree to do as much as Russia, USA and UK.
Putin's view is he blames various countries for the problems in Ukraine - USA, UK, Poland and even Lithuania. He really, really does not want the main western powers involved in Ukraine in any way.
Right now, I can't see him agreeing to it. He might well do if Russia is hurt enough economically, but that will take months to really bite.
By then, a lot of death and destruction will have occurred. As of this moment, Putin believes he can either take Kyiv OR raze important Ukrainian cities to the ground in a scorched earth policy.
Very difficult to see how a new security arrangement can or will be agreed right now.
How different would it fundamentally be from the failed 1994 Budapest Memorandum?
Russia has form for breaking such agreements. And now, the West has form for failing to properly live up to its own obligations.
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Post by pg13 on Mar 9, 2022 11:36:54 GMT
Fortunately for us, Putin has given us a pretty good insight into how he thinks about Ukraine in relation to Russia.
His 2021 essay, "On The Historical Unity Of Ukrainians And Russians" is most instructive on this.
Putin's argument, flawed as it is, is encapsulated here:
"In the anti-Russia project, there is no place either for a sovereign Ukraine or for the political forces that are trying to defend its real independence."
From the beginning, he portrays Ukraine as being anti-Russia and, whilst he does admit Russians made mistakes with Ukrainians earlier I'm history, he essentially blames countries such as Poland and Lithuania as well as various NATO members for the mental wall between Russians and Ukrainians.
Putin's Russia does NOT want Ukraine to be an independent, sovereign country IF it won't do what Russia wants.
What is revealing in his essay is this section:
"I am confident that true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia."
Putin's goal is to keep Ukraine firmly within the Russian sphere of influence and, therefore, deny Ukrainians the sovereign right to decide what they want to do.
In his mind, Russia and Ukraine is one historic country that was unjustly partitioned by other European states.
As Putin asserted in his essay at one point:
"We can disagree about minor details, background and logics behind certain decisions. One fact is crystal clear: Russia was robbed, indeed."
Such thinking and rhetoric is not legitimate or deserving of respect.
Yes, Putin does claim to "respect Ukrainians' desire to see their country free, safe and prosperous."
But this is heavily qualified by Russian demands that Ukraine stays within Moscow's sphere of influence.
After all, Putin sees that "Moscow became the center of reunification, continuing the tradition of ancient Russian statehood. Moscow princes – the descendants of Prince Alexander Nevsky – cast off the foreign yoke and began gathering the Russian lands."
He wants Novorossiya aka New Russia. Ukraine is part of Malorussia in his eyes - that is, Little Russia.
There is no room for negotiation with an overtly Nationalist view such as this. Other regions of the world are testament to that fact.
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Post by respect77 on Mar 9, 2022 13:38:21 GMT
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Post by Cloudbuster on Mar 9, 2022 19:55:23 GMT
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